Seasonal forecasts look very different from traditional short-range forecasts. These are the two main differences:

  • seasonal forecasts cover the meteorological elements mean values for 3 months;
  • seasonal forecasts are in terms of probability.

NIMH issues a synthesis of the seasonal forecasts from several leading world centres.

Winter (December-January-February): With mean seasonal temperature above normal and seasonal rainfall/snowfall near or below normal. Winter 2017/18 is very likely to be warmer than winter 2016/17 but with similar seasonal rainfall/snowfall.

Spring (March-April-May): With mean seasonal temperature near or above normal and seasonal rainfall near normal. Spring 2018 is very likely to be similar to spring 2017.

The seasonal forecast is updated in the interval 27-th-30-th every month.

More datailed seasonal forecast as well as more about its specificity read on the site of the Infocentre(in Bulgarian)

Other resources