An operational system for current fire conditions analysis and a two days forecast for Bulgaria based on the forecasts of the regional numerical atmospheric model of NIMH Aladin.
The system is operational since April,2008 during the warm months (April-October)The Canadian Fire Weather Index, FWI, developed in the Canadian Forest Service Research Center is used.
Data used (input elements for FWI calculation):
- precipitaion amount for the last 24 hours;
- air temperature;
- air relative humidity;
- wind speed; snow cover presence;
- day duration.
FWI has three sub-indices showing the "dryness" of different types of "fuel". Each of these sub-idices is a complex function of the meteo-elements. Knowing the sub-indices and wind velocity data, two other sub indices are calculated, which evaluate the initial fire kindling and the available "fuel" for the further unfolding of the fire. On their basis the FWI in calculated and it gives an overall assessment of the intensity of fire unfolding (in energy released per unit time per unit length along the fire front line).
Scale of fire danger. is determined.