Early Warning System for Possible Transport of Radioactive Pollution in Case of a Nuclear Accident over Europe


!!!! IMPORTANT !!!! The results presented are simulations, not actual accidents.

The system BERS (Bulgarian Emergency Response System) works in operational regime each day in NIMH calculating trajectories, concentrations and depositions. It uses the meso-meteorological model WRF fed by prognostic information from the American GFS (Global Forecast System) with a resolution of 0.25 deg. WRF makes a three-days weather forecast for the region of Europe. The wind distribution in space and time is used for calculation of forecast trajectories. The concentrations and depositions are calculated by the three-dimensional model EMAP (Eulerian Model for Air Pollution) created at NIMH for describing the dispersion of atmospheric pollutants. The meteorological input to the model are the WRF-calculated forecast fields of a number of meteorological parameters that determine the intensity not only of transport, but also of a number of other dispersion processes such as diffusion, dry and wet deposition, chemical and radioactive transformations, etc. As a source of pollution, a simulation of a powerful nuclear accident is used, the parameters of which are described on the right of the animated picture.

In the web page of the system BERS two types of information are presented:

  • Prognostic trajectories of particles released at different altitudes over selected 36 European nuclear power plants. In their calculation, only the three-dimensional wind field was taken into account. In other words, only one of the different dispersion processes – the transport – is modelled.
  • The animated prognostic fields of concentrations and depositions of radioactive material discharged from each of the above plants, take into account not only the transport, but also other dispersion processes: diffusion, dry and wet deposition on the earth's surface, transformation of pollutants, etc.

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